More dangerous than oil?

Moisés Naím / World Energy & Oil

Oil was the reason behind many of the armed conflictsthat erupted in the 20th Century.Will water replace oil as a source of conflict in this century? Yes. According to top conflict and security specialists, water will be the next major driver of international conflict. Pressure from multiple factors is reducing access to clean and reliable sources of water. And, although technological fixes are known and awareness of the problem is growing, the lack of needed political will and international cooperation are contributing to the deterioration of water supplies across the planet.

The security threat isrecognized by prominent global leaders. The Director of NationalIntelligence of the United States reports: “During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important U.S. policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems. The lack of adequate water will be a destabilizing factor in some countries because they do not have the financial resources or technical ability to solve theirinternal water problems. In addition, some states are further stressed by a heavy dependency on river water controlled by upstream nations with unresolved water-sharing issues. Wealthier developing countries probably will experience increasing water-related social disruptions…”

“The future political impact of water scarcity may be devastating,” said former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. “Using water the way we have in the past simply will not sustain humanity in future.” Chretien cochaired a report on the water crisis issued by InterAction Council (IAC), a group of 40 prominent former government leaders and heads of state. The IAC called on the United Nations Security Council to recognize water as “one of the top security concerns facing the global community.”

THE PEAK
Lester Brown, who leads the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., reports that 18 countries which are home to half of the world’s population, including China, India and the U.S., are now over-pumping their aquifers. Some of them, such as Iraq and Yemen, are already in a critical situation of water availability. Echoing the once-common references to “Peak Oil,” Brown refers to “Peak Water” to emphasize that some of the water used is not being replenished. From this perspective, the world is consuming water at a faster speed than the water that becomes available through natural cycles.

There are three surprises about the world’s water crisis: the first is how grave it is and therefore how urgent it is to do something about it. The second is the number of good ideas, projects, technologies, public policy reforms and international initiatives that are currently available to act on it. The third, and the most ominous surprise, is how little is actually being done to tackle this problem.

WHAT IS CAUSING THE CRISIS?
Oil is one factor of the water crises and their potential for conflict. The recent boom in shale gas and massive oil production contribute to the global water crisis in at least two ways: first, through the increasing competition between producers of shale gas and farmersforlimited water, and second, via theirimpact on global warming and its effects on climate change. But fossil fuel production and consumption is neither the only nor the most significant driver of the world’s water crisis. There are at least four other factors that are also contributing to the problem: demographics, prosperity, climate change and new sources of demand for water.

DEMOGRAPHICS
Probably the most important force behind the current and future water shortages is population growth. The demand for water is a directly related to the number of humans on earth. And that demand is not just a function of how much water each one of the 7 billion people consumes every day but also by what else they do that either reduces the supply of water or boosts the demand. For example, cutting trees and the rapid desertification of forestsreducesthe supply of water, whereas using more ethanol to fuel carsrequires waterfor biofuel production.

The numbers that illustrate the water situation are staggering. In Pakistan, for example, one third of the population already lacks access to safe drinking water, and its population of 180 million will grow to about 230 million by 2050. Shifting demographics due to the internal migration spurred by violence and the war against the Taliban further complicatesthat country’s watershortage situation. Pakistan barely has a 30-day supply of water in its reservoirs – far below the almost three years of stored water that are recommended for countries with a similar climate.

While Pakistan may be an extreme example, in many other countries, water crises resulting from rapid population growth and the displacement of large quantities of people as a result of man-made disasters or climatic accidents are becoming increasingly common.

PROSPERITY
Despite the economic crisis that has affected much of the world since 2008, per capita incomes and consumption levels are now higher than ever before in human history. More prosperous humans consume more water as their disposable incomes allow for more water-intensive lifestyles and dietary patterns. The fast-growing middle class in countries like Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia or Mongolia consumes more water. Worldwide, meat consumption has soared, and producing one pound of meatrequires ten times more water than the production of vegetables with equivalent calories and proteins. Professor Brahma Chellaney has noted that the obesity pandemic that is now affecting the world also adds to our water problems. “The issue thus is not just about how many mouths there are to feed, but also how much excess body fat there is on the planet.” He cites a study that found that if the rest of the world had the same average body mass index as the U.S., this would be the equivalent of adding almost one billion people to the global population, greatly exacerbating waterstress.

CLIMATE CHANGE
Writing about a recent visit to Syria, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman reported: “between 2006 and 2011, some 60 percent of Syria’s land mass wasravaged by the drought and, with the water table already too low and river irrigation shrunken, it wiped out the livelihoods of 800,000 Syrian farmers and herders.” The World Meteorological Organization estimates that water availability has decreased up to 30 percent in arid countries, mostly due to the impact of carbon dioxide emissions derived from fossil fuels. Warmer temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent and longer droughts are already reducing the amount of water in lakes, rivers, and streams, as well as the amount of water that seeps into the earth to replenish ground water. And while this is a global phenomenon, some countries are far more vulnerable than others. According to Iran’s Minister of Agriculture, Issa Kalantari, the country could become inhabitable in the next 30 years if the water issue is not addressed. Iran has no important watersheds and already depends on fossil and imported water. Again, Iran is not alone in this predicament: frequent drought and retreating glaciers have diminished water availability in La Paz, Bolivia’s capital, while Lake Titicaca is at itslowest level since 1949. The Nile River is under stress, and rights to its waters are a source of conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia.

NEW SOURCES OF DEMAND FOR WATER
A recentstudy by Rice University concluded: “It takes 50 gallons of waterto grow enough Nebraska corn to produce the amount of ethanol needed to drive one mile” – or, put in different terms, the production of one liter of corn ethanolrequires between 350 and 1400 liters of water from irrigation.” In Texas, competition for water between farmers along the Brazos River and Dow Chemical had to go to the courts.In seven states ofthe U.S.,shale gas producers compete with other users for decreasing water resources, due to persistent drought.In China the town of Daliuta in the province of Shaanxi is the center of a conflict between coal mining and the needs ofthe community for its limited water resources. Coal and electricity generation now use almost 20 percent of China’s water resources, and the United Nations estimates that 80 percent of coal production in China is centered in areas where water supplies are either stressed or in absolute scarcity.

WHAT TO DO?
The world can do more about the water crisis it faces by applying technological solutions that already exist and investing more in creating new, better ones. It can also do more by improving the management of its waterresources. It is doing far less than what its needed and – more worryingly – less than what it can immediately do with the knowledge, technologies and institutions now available. Understanding why the world is passively watching this major crisis unfold without reacting more effectively is a puzzle that needs to be urgently solved. The reality of the problem is clear. The need for action and international cooperation to avoid water shortages and conflicts is also very clear. Unfortunately, the political incentives to come up with initiatives that push global public opinion and world leaders out of complacency are sorely lacking.

This needs to change. Responding to the world’s water crisisis probably one of the most pressing problems humanity will face in the 21st century.