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What will President-Elect George W. Bush do if Fidel Castro dies during his watch, unleashing a massive outflow of Cuban refugees desperately fleeing the Albanian-like chaos of the post-Castro era? If Argentina falls into major economic disarray, will a Bush Administration bail it out as forcefully as the Clinton government backed Mexico and Brazil in the 1990s? How will Bush respond if Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias recognizes the Colombian rebels as the legitimate government of Colombia and signs an economic- and military-cooperation treaty with them?
The 1990s began in Berlin and ended in Seattle. In Berlin, a crowd tore down a wall built to contain democracy and free markets. In Seattle, another crowd marched in protest against the World Trade Organization in an effort to rebuild the walls that might protect them against ills unleashed by globalization. Put another way, the bricks people collected as souvenirs from the Berlin Wall in 1989 were thrown through the windows of McDonald's in 1999. Thus a decade that began with great hopes about the global spread of capitalism ended with widespread apprehension toward it. What happened?
What changes more often, the fashion designs coming from Paris and Milan or the economic policy designs Washington and Wall Street prescribe to countries that are less developed or that are emerging from decades of communism? While this comparison may seem frivolous, a review of the ideas that have guided thinking and action about economic reforms in this decade shows that they are as faddish as skirt lengths and tie widths. The difference, of course, is that economic policy fashions affect the way millions of people live and define their children's chances for a better future.
Moisés Naím and Nancy Birdsall / South China Morning Post
The once-frantic debate about international financial architecture is ending in a whimper. The departure of Secretary Robert Rubin from the United States Treasury spells its death knell. This is too bad for Asian voters and for Asian democracies.
Bewildered by the bizarre turn of events in Mexico, novelist Gabriel García Márquez told his colleague Carlos Fuentes that they should throw their books into the sea. "We have been totally defeated by reality," said García Márquez.
Why, in the 1990s, has corruption suddenly become such a political lightning rod? From India to Italy, from Japan to Brazil-why have societies which have traditionally tolerated corruption at the highest levels in government and the private sector suddenly lost their patience, their citizens willing to take to the streets to topple high officials accused of wrongdoing?
Moisés Naím / The World Bank: Its Role, Governance and Organizational Culture
The 50th anniversary of the founding of the Bretton Woods institutions in 1994 prompted a flood of initiatives aimed at assessing the role played by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and debating their future. Most of such reassessments begin by stressing how much the world has changed in the 50 years since both organizations were established. From the collapse of communism to the communications and transportation revolution, and from the radical transformation of financial markets to the population explosion, the inventory of the new conditions under which the Bretton Woods institutions have to operate is certainly long. The implication, of course, is that the institutions should adapt their goals and policies to the new realities and then reorganize accordingly.